AK or AFK
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$196.40
309 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.00%
EV $170.87 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.35%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $555 875 HUNT_COIN | 32.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 10.0% | $480 755 HUNT_COIN | 28.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $445 701 HUNT_COIN | 26.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $155 245 HUNT_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $29.23 46.03 HUNT_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $12.08 19.03 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon | 10.0% | $10.97 17.27 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $10.83 17.06 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $7.98 12.57 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$196309 HUNT_COIN$480755 HUNT_COIN2.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $196 | 87.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%#eb4b4b 10.0%restricted 10.0%classified 10.0%uncommon 10.0%mil spec 10.0%Classified 10.0%best hit —