HEIKKI 2
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.25
1.97 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.55%
EV $1.12 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.07%
239 openings, odds method
Variance
43.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 56
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 239 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 56 | $62.22 98 HUNT_COIN | 98.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.18× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 32.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 74 | 76.5 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 33.2% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 83 | 79.4 | 1.05× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 77 | 78.9 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.251.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeMacieja$1.251.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.251.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.251.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.55%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.25 | 89.55% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.8%Consumer Grade 32.0%consumer 66.2%best hit —