BIG MONEY HERE
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.77
45.32 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $25.14 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.05%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
24.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,840 4,473 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,361 3,718 HUNT_COIN | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,528 2,406 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $979 1,542 HUNT_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 182 | $397 626 HUNT_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $221 348 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $134 211 HUNT_COIN | 16.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon | 93.9% | $5.70 8.97 HUNT_COIN | 21.3% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.77 | 87.37% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%Covert 0.1%restricted 0.6%classified 3.0%other 93.9%best hit —