free knife

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.08

0.12 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.72%

EV $0.07 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

114.48%

2,210 openings, odds method

Variance

518.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 1,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

1,604 openings · below min

30 days

2,210 openings · below min

since tracking started

2,210 openings · below min

-0.5%652.8%1306.0%

Small sample. 2,210 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	16.67%±1288.6	—	odds
7d	1,604	106.52%±111.5	—	odds
30d	2,210	114.48%±95.0	—	odds
All	2,210	114.48%±95.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	81.2%	3	2.2	1.36×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	99.9%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	18.8%	2,207	2207.8	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.