1 dollar demon
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.63
0.99 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.77%
EV $0.56 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
202.46%
1,148 openings, odds method
Variance
233.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 167
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (114.02% – 290.89%, 1,148 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,148 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $857 1,351 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,500 | $155 245 HUNT_COIN | 11.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 182 | $39.86 62.78 HUNT_COIN | 39.3% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.58× |
| Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff | 1 in 23 | $4.06 6.4 HUNT_COIN | 32.0% | 47 | 50.5 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 1,090 | 1090.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertd1sab1ed$0.630.99 HUNT_COIN$8571,351 HUNT_COIN1,364x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.63 | 88.77% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%#8847ff 4.4%other 95.0%best hit $857 (1,364x)