1% knife
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.79
1.24 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.82%
EV $0.69 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
52.51%
548 openings, odds method
Variance
185.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 548 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 10,000 | $849 1,338 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $255 402 HUNT_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 1,429 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 111 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 71.5% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.8% | 544 | 542.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.791.24 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN69.75x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.791.24 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN69.75x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.791.24 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN69.75x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.791.24 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN69.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.79 | 87.82% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%covert 1.0%other 99.0%best hit $54.91 (69.75x)