10% MEGAPROFIT
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.84
4.48 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $2.48 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
157.18%
176 openings, sample method
Variance
78.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 176 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 176 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $351 553 HUNT_COIN | 70.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $60.97 96.03 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $4.58 7.22 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 18 | 15.8 | 1.14× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 156 | 158.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLeva_alt2$2.844.48 HUNT_COIN$351553 HUNT_COIN123.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerDiabloPhD$2.844.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerLeva_alt2$2.844.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerMarius Tutunaru$2.844.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC | $2.84 | 87.35% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%covert 9.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $351 (123.5x)