DRANKBRONZE
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.04
0.06 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
80.48%
EV $0.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.52%
2,087 openings, odds method
Variance
326.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,087 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $205 324 HUNT_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,263 | $12.69 19.98 HUNT_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Sticker | Gambit Gamingsticker | 1 in 556 | $3.19 5.03 HUNT_COIN | 18.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet | 1 in 125 | $0.63 1 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 12 | 16.7 | 0.72× |
| Sticker | Separate Pixelssticker · high | 1 in 50 | $0.12 0.19 HUNT_COIN | 7.9% | 51 | 41.7 | 1.22× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 1 in 20 | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 117 | 104.4 | 1.12× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 12.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 5.0% | 234 | 250.4 | 0.93× |
| Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 33.1% | 1,668 | 1669.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · CommonOwnedbyAsh-SKINS$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.040.06 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.04 | 80.48% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%other 0.2%violet 0.8%high 2.0%consumer 17.0%Common 80.0%best hit —