DRANKSILVER
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.10
0.15 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.33%
EV $0.08 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.46%
1,115 openings, odds method
Variance
733.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 100,000 | $777 1,224 HUNT_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 5,263 | $43.86 69.08 HUNT_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 556 | $10.83 17.06 HUNT_COIN | 23.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 125 | $2.22 3.49 HUNT_COIN | 21.6% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $0.43 0.68 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade | 1 in 20 | $0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN | 5.8% | 56 | 55.8 | 1.00× |
| P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 12.0% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN | 6.5% | 129 | 133.8 | 0.96× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 894 | 892.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerMarius Tutunaru$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.10 | 86.33% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%mil spec 2.0%covert 0.2%classified 0.8%High Grade 5.0%#4b69ff 12.0%consumer 80.0%best hit —