DRANKGOLD
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.03
1.62 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.60%
EV $0.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.41%
355 openings, sample method
Variance
151.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 355 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 355 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $868 1,367 HUNT_COIN | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 204 | $132 208 HUNT_COIN | 71.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet | 1 in 67 | $6.11 9.63 HUNT_COIN | 10.2% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.31× |
| CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $1.23 1.94 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| Five-SeveN | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 1 in 20 | $0.31 0.49 HUNT_COIN | 1.7% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade | 10.0% | $0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 33 | 35.5 | 0.93× |
| P90 | Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 72 | 71.0 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 60.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 215 | 213.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$1.031.62 HUNT_COIN$132208 HUNT_COIN128.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerTerorizezBabe.$1.031.62 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerDiabloPhD$1.031.62 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:05 UTC | $1.03 | 87.60% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%covert 0.5%violet 1.5%mil spec 3.0%Rare 5.0%High Grade 10.0%#b0c3d9 20.0%consumer 60.0%best hit $132 (128.3x)