20% Budget
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.65
5.75 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.44%
EV $3.16 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.99%
841 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 841 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.655.75 HUNT_COIN$15.3724.21 HUNT_COIN4.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.44%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.65 | 86.44% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.3%epic 0.0%industrial 0.1%Legendary 0.1%covert 4.5%#8847FF 2.0%restricted 3.0%red 5.0%mil spec 5.0%other 55.0%high 25.0%best hit —