1% CHEAP
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.23
0.37 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
85.16%
EV $0.20 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.17%
1,799 openings, odds method
Variance
123.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,799 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 34.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $26.03 40.99 HUNT_COIN | 26.0% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 333 | $13.18 20.76 HUNT_COIN | 19.8% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 250 | $6.62 10.42 HUNT_COIN | 13.2% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 6.3% | 1,781 | 1781.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$69.44109 HUNT_COIN295.6x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$69.44109 HUNT_COIN295.6x
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedwavxx123$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$13.1820.76 HUNT_COIN56.11x
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedTerracidre$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$13.1820.76 HUNT_COIN56.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer GradeSr.Calavera$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.16%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.23 | 85.16% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%classified 0.3%restricted 0.4%Consumer Grade 99.0%best hit $69.44 (295.6x)