Price
$3.16
4.98 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.31%
EV $2.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.42%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $31.61 49.78 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 56 | $19.26 30.34 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 38 | $14.15 22.29 HUNT_COIN | 13.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $9.31 14.67 HUNT_COIN | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $6.97 10.97 HUNT_COIN | 15.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 17 | $5.63 8.87 HUNT_COIN | 12.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 13 | $3.68 5.8 HUNT_COIN | 10.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | Seeing Redsticker · Rare | 30.0% | $1.11 1.75 HUNT_COIN | 11.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 40.6% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.31%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.16 | 88.31% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 1.0%pink 1.8%classified 2.6%covert 10.0%#d32ee6 6.0%#4b69ff 8.0%Rare 30.0%other 40.6%best hit —