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farm

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.03
0.04 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.52%
EV $0.02 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.85%
2,751 openings, odds method
Variance
13.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
115.68%±46.97236 openings
7 days
83.85%±15.192,256 openings
30 days
80.85%±13.762,751 openings
since tracking started
80.85%±13.762,751 openings
66.5%115.0%163.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h236115.68%±47.0+1.1σodds
7d2,25683.85%±15.2−0.7σodds
30d2,75180.85%±13.8−1.2σodds
All2,75180.85%±13.8−1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,751 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20,000$3.32 5.23 HUNT_COIN0.7%00.1—
AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 250$1.44 2.27 HUNT_COIN25.4%611.00.55×
M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d913.1%$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN25.6%409360.21.14×
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common86.5%$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN48.3%2,3362379.60.98×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CommonMaltael$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN1.75x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CommonMaltael$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9Maltael$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN1.75x
M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN1.75x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.52%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$0.0389.52%4
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#8847ff 0.0%restricted 0.4%#b0c3d9 13.1%Common 86.5%best hit —