cheap coin battle
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.03
0.05 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
80.25%
EV $0.03 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.75%
3,595 openings, odds method
Variance
14.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,595 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 1 in 400 | $2.30 3.63 HUNT_COIN | 22.6% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.56× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 400 | $0.62 0.98 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| Desert Eagle | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 3.0% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 10.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 19.9% | 339 | 359.5 | 0.94× |
| Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 12 | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 288 | 305.6 | 0.94× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 39.9% | 2,913 | 2876.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeKINGGING$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.80x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.03 | 80.25% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedviolet 0.3%restricted 0.3%industrial 1.0%gray 10.0%Industrial Grade 8.5%Consumer Grade 80.0%best hit —