90 in 5

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.66

5.76 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.46%

EV $3.16 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.39%

616 openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

60 openings · below min

7 days

90.18%±20.01475 openings

30 days

88.39%±17.58616 openings

since tracking started

88.39%±17.58616 openings

19.5%76.5%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	60	76.36%±56.3	—	odds
7d	475	90.18%±20.0	+0.4σ	odds
30d	616	88.39%±17.6	+0.2σ	odds
All	616	88.39%±17.6	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 616 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$193 304 HUNT_COIN	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 3,333	$164 258 HUNT_COIN	1.6%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,667	$111 175 HUNT_COIN	2.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$54.72 86.19 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 400	$41.39 65.19 HUNT_COIN	3.3%	1	1.5	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$37.23 58.63 HUNT_COIN	6.5%	1	3.4	0.30×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$33.26 52.39 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	4	6.2	0.65×
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 50	$19.03 29.98 HUNT_COIN	12.0%	14	12.3	1.14×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$15.37 24.21 HUNT_COIN	14.6%	20	18.5	1.08×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$14.50 22.84 HUNT_COIN	13.8%	19	18.5	1.03×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20	$11.82 18.61 HUNT_COIN	18.7%	26	30.8	0.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$8.33 13.12 HUNT_COIN	13.2%	32	30.8	1.04×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	100	92.4	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.0%	$0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN	0.4%	69	92.4	0.75×
M249 \| Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	25.0%	$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN	0.4%	176	154.0	1.14×
Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	152	154.0	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffLEZAS$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.03x1h

M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$19.0329.98 HUNT_COIN5.20x1h

USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$11.8218.61 HUNT_COIN3.23x1h

Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerLEZAS$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.03x1h

M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9$3.665.76 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3.66	86.46%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.3%epic 0.0%industrial 0.1%Legendary 0.1%covert 4.5%#8847FF 2.0%restricted 3.0%red 5.0%mil spec 5.0%#4b69ff 15.0%milspec 15.0%#b0c3d9 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —