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10% AWP

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$19.91
31.36 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $17.92 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.62%
1,625 openings, odds method
Variance
10.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
47.23%±53.58134 openings
7 days
90.63%±16.391,432 openings
30 days
90.62%±15.391,625 openings
since tracking started
90.62%±15.391,625 openings
-0.5%53.5%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h13447.23%±53.6−1.6σodds
7d1,43290.63%±16.4+0.1σodds
30d1,62590.62%±15.4+0.1σodds
All1,62590.62%±15.4+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,625 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$1,333 2,100 HUNT_COIN3.7%30.8—
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$964 1,518 HUNT_COIN5.4%11.60.62×
StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 667$646 1,017 HUNT_COIN5.4%02.40.00×
Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial1 in 500$463 729 HUNT_COIN5.2%33.30.92×
AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 400$201 317 HUNT_COIN2.8%54.11.23×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 400$179 282 HUNT_COIN2.5%34.10.74×
StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$130 205 HUNT_COIN7.3%1416.30.86×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$107 168 HUNT_COIN11.9%2832.50.86×
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33$95.47 150 HUNT_COIN16.0%4948.81.01×
AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 33$94.03 148 HUNT_COIN15.7%4648.80.94×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$77.64 122 HUNT_COIN21.7%8981.31.10×
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted15.0%$1.30 2.04 HUNT_COIN1.1%225243.80.92×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted20.0%$0.62 0.98 HUNT_COIN0.7%331325.01.02×
AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff25.0%$0.39 0.62 HUNT_COIN0.5%422406.31.04×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial25.0%$0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN0.1%406406.31.00×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$1,3332,100 HUNT_COIN66.96x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$1,3332,100 HUNT_COIN66.96x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$1,3332,100 HUNT_COIN66.96x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN48.40x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN0.03x
AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN0.03x
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$1.302.04 HUNT_COIN0.07x
AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffHulk$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.00x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.00x
AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$19.9131.36 HUNT_COIN$1.302.04 HUNT_COIN0.07x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$19.9189.99%15
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.4%Classified 0.1%industrial 25.2%mil spec 0.3%classified 1.0%Ancient 3.0%restricted 35.0%#4b69ff 25.0%best hit $1,333 (66.96x)