Diablo's Statistical Anomaly

A case on Hunt.gg, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$90.11

142 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

80.89%

2,976 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.10%±29.712,850 openings

7 days

80.89%±30.272,976 openings

30 days

80.89%±30.272,976 openings

since tracking started

80.89%±30.272,976 openings

47.5%79.8%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,850	78.10%±29.7	—	sample
7d	2,976	80.89%±30.3	—	sample
30d	2,976	80.89%±30.3	—	sample
All	2,976	80.89%±30.3	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogHunt.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x1h

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x2h

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x3h

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covertDiabloPhD$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x5h

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x14h

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x15h

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covertDiabloPhD$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$14.2K22,288 HUNT_COIN157.0x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$2,7084,266 HUNT_COIN30.05x22m

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$2,7084,266 HUNT_COIN30.05x1h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Red Shark Shootersticker · high$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.260.41 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Sticker | Red Cyclawpssticker · Rare$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.240.38 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Sticker | Red Shark Shootersticker · high$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.260.41 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Sticker | Red Cyclawpssticker · Rare$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.240.38 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Sticker | Red Shark Shootersticker · highDiabloPhD$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.260.41 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Sticker | Red Cyclawpssticker · Rare$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.240.38 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Sticker | Red Shark Shootersticker · high$90.11142 HUNT_COIN$0.260.41 HUNT_COIN0.00x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $14.2K (157.0x)