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10% Knife

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$10.81
17.02 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.45%
EV $9.34 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.54%
2,220 openings, odds method
Variance
22.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
83.08%±76.01147 openings
7 days
89.48%±21.101,908 openings
30 days
93.54%±19.562,220 openings
since tracking started
93.54%±19.562,220 openings
6.5%83.0%159.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h14783.08%±76.0−0.1σodds
7d1,90889.48%±21.1+0.3σodds
30d2,22093.54%±19.6+0.7σodds
All2,22093.54%±19.6+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,220 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$2,597 4,091 HUNT_COIN2.8%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 2,000$1,292 2,034 HUNT_COIN6.9%21.11.80×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 1,000$679 1,069 HUNT_COIN7.3%22.20.90×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 769$344 542 HUNT_COIN4.8%62.92.08×
★ Huntsman Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd7001 in 625$153 241 HUNT_COIN2.6%53.61.41×
★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 400$132 208 HUNT_COIN3.5%65.51.08×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 333$103 162 HUNT_COIN3.3%86.71.20×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives1 in 100$82.36 130 HUNT_COIN8.8%2122.20.95×
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$77.78 123 HUNT_COIN16.7%4544.41.01×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 33$71.61 113 HUNT_COIN23.0%6466.60.96×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 33$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN17.6%6766.61.01×
Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade1 in 20$0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN0.4%120111.01.08×
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D915.0%$0.50 0.79 HUNT_COIN0.8%325333.00.98×
Sticker | Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FF20.0%$0.30 0.48 HUNT_COIN0.7%462444.01.04×
Sticker | Rush Moresticker · blue25.0%$0.20 0.32 HUNT_COIN0.5%517555.00.93×
Sticker | skullz (Glitter)sticker25.0%$0.10 0.16 HUNT_COIN0.3%570555.01.03×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$1,2922,034 HUNT_COIN119.5x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertKIM$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$1,2922,034 HUNT_COIN119.5x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN62.82x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN62.82x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Sticker | Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FF$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN0.03x
Sticker | Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FFHobbi3ten$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN0.03x
Sticker | Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FF$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN0.03x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN5.08x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High GradeHobbi3ten$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | skullz (Glitter)sticker$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Sticker | Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FF$10.8117.02 HUNT_COIN$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$10.8186.45%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.8%#ffd700 0.2%Knives 1.0%covert knife 3.0%High Grade 5.0%#B0C3D9 15.0%#4B69FF 20.0%blue 25.0%other 25.0%best hit $1,292 (119.5x)