43 Gang

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.50

41.73 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.48%

EV $22.91 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.21%

170 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

90 openings · below min

30 days

79.21%±25.64170 openings

since tracking started

79.21%±25.64170 openings

13.0%97.2%181.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	97.33%±83.6	—	odds
7d	90	83.54%±35.2	—	odds
30d	170	79.21%±25.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	170	79.21%±25.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 170 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$856 1,347 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$521 820 HUNT_COIN	3.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$431 678 HUNT_COIN	3.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$255 402 HUNT_COIN	3.3%	1	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 125	$172 271 HUNT_COIN	6.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$138 217 HUNT_COIN	6.0%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$103 162 HUNT_COIN	6.7%	3	2.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$76.11 120 HUNT_COIN	6.6%	4	3.4	1.18×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$60.97 96.03 HUNT_COIN	6.7%	5	4.3	1.18×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$51.58 81.24 HUNT_COIN	11.3%	9	8.5	1.06×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 15	$39.58 62.34 HUNT_COIN	11.2%	12	11.1	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$34.65 54.58 HUNT_COIN	11.3%	9	12.8	0.71×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.5%	$29.14 45.9 HUNT_COIN	15.9%	27	21.3	1.27×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	20.0%	$4.39 6.92 HUNT_COIN	3.8%	33	34.0	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$1.50 2.37 HUNT_COIN	1.3%	29	34.0	0.85×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	20.0%	$0.83 1.3 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	37	34.0	1.09×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$60.9796.03 HUNT_COIN2.30x1h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$0.831.3 HUNT_COIN0.03x1h

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$1.502.37 HUNT_COIN0.06x1h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$51.5881.24 HUNT_COIN1.95x1h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHulk$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$76.11120 HUNT_COIN2.87x1h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$29.1445.9 HUNT_COIN1.10x1h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$0.831.3 HUNT_COIN0.03x1h

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$1.502.37 HUNT_COIN0.06x1h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$26.5041.73 HUNT_COIN$0.831.3 HUNT_COIN0.03x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$26.50	86.48%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.6%covert knife 1.1%gold 0.8%restricted 2.0%classified 35.0%red 6.5%mil spec 20.0%violet 20.0%best hit —