AFK Until Buy
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.59
84.41 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $46.36 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.09%
33 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 33 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $555 875 HUNT_COIN | 18.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $247 389 HUNT_COIN | 16.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $101 158 HUNT_COIN | 16.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $71.18 112 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 13.0% | $54.17 85.32 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 17.0% | $46.88 73.83 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.53× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 20.0% | $5.63 8.87 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $4.12 6.49 HUNT_COIN | 2.7% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.21× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$53.5984.41 HUNT_COIN$54.1785.32 HUNT_COIN1.01x
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPeitschenMeister$53.5984.41 HUNT_COIN$4.126.49 HUNT_COIN0.08x
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$53.5984.41 HUNT_COIN$71.18112 HUNT_COIN1.33x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6PeitschenMeister$53.5984.41 HUNT_COIN$5.638.87 HUNT_COIN0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $53.59 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.5%classified 54.5%#d32ee6 20.0%best hit $555 (10.36x)