Blastoise
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.40
40.01 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.48%
EV $21.97 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.36%
220 openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 667 | $1,229 1,936 HUNT_COIN | 8.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,012 1,595 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 5.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 40 | $137 216 HUNT_COIN | 15.6% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 29 | $96.51 152 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 13 | 7.7 | 1.69× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 15 | $76.04 120 HUNT_COIN | 22.5% | 19 | 14.3 | 1.33× |
| Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary | 11.6% | $32.81 51.68 HUNT_COIN | 17.3% | 23 | 25.4 | 0.91× |
| Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec | 75.0% | $0.58 0.92 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 161 | 165.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$1,2291,936 HUNT_COIN48.38x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN1.29x
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · LegendaryHulk$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN1.29x
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN1.29x
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$25.4040.01 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.40 | 86.48% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.5%covert knife 2.5%restricted 6.5%Legendary 11.6%Mil Spec 75.0%best hit $1,229 (48.38x)