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A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$128.58

203 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $111.22 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

167.05%

37 openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

27 openings · below min

30 days

37 openings · below min

since tracking started

37 openings · below min

86.0%196.0%306.0%

Small sample. 37 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	27	219.48%±85.7	—	odds
30d	37	167.05%±73.2	—	odds
All	37	167.05%±73.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$7,153 11,265 HUNT_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$5,693 8,966 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 1,667	$4,014 6,322 HUNT_COIN	2.2%	1	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,976 3,112 HUNT_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,596 2,513 HUNT_COIN	3.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 182	$1,403 2,209 HUNT_COIN	6.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$1,194 1,881 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	1	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 50	$710 1,118 HUNT_COIN	12.8%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 33	$556 875 HUNT_COIN	15.0%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 33	$431 678 HUNT_COIN	11.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$403 634 HUNT_COIN	18.1%	3	1.9	1.62×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 20	$311 490 HUNT_COIN	14.0%	3	1.9	1.62×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon	15.0%	$3.89 6.13 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	5	5.5	0.90×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	15.0%	$2.31 3.64 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	3	5.5	0.54×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	25.0%	$1.04 1.64 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	12	9.3	1.30×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	25.0%	$0.43 0.67 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	8	9.3	0.86×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendarySparven$129203 HUNT_COIN$4,0146,322 HUNT_COIN31.22x2d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$129203 HUNT_COIN$1,1941,881 HUNT_COIN9.29x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$129203 HUNT_COIN$556875 HUNT_COIN4.32x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$129203 HUNT_COIN$0.430.67 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$129203 HUNT_COIN$2.313.64 HUNT_COIN0.02x2d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RareRicki$129203 HUNT_COIN$1.041.64 HUNT_COIN0.01x2d

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$129203 HUNT_COIN$0.430.67 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$129203 HUNT_COIN$403634 HUNT_COIN3.13x2d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$129203 HUNT_COIN$3.896.13 HUNT_COIN0.03x2d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$129203 HUNT_COIN$1,1941,881 HUNT_COIN9.29x2d

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$129203 HUNT_COIN$0.430.67 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendarySparven$129203 HUNT_COIN$4,0146,322 HUNT_COIN31.22x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$129	86.50%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 5.9%legendary 0.1%covert knife 1.0%gold 2.0%#EB4B4B 3.0%Immortal 8.0%other 15.0%blue 15.0%Rare 25.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit $4,014 (31.22x)