5% Blaze
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.75
12.21 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.36%
EV $6.77 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.13%
57 openings, odds method
Variance
41.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 57 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 57 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 200 | $693 1,091 HUNT_COIN | 51.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 1 in 11 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT_COIN | 48.7% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 50 | 51.3 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.75 | 87.36% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.5%milspec 9.5%other 90.0%best hit —