Collector
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$206.32
325 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $178.47 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.03%
62 openings, odds method
Variance
26.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 62 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $13.9K 21,850 HUNT_COIN | 19.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT_COIN | 30.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN | 26.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT_COIN | 10.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 57 | $1,264 1,991 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $1.44 2.27 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $0.36 0.56 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 22 | 18.6 | 1.18× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 40.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 23 | 24.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertGremlin$206325 HUNT_COIN$1,2641,991 HUNT_COIN6.13x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $206 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.8%contraband 1.0%restricted 56.3%industrial 40.0%best hit $4,721 (22.88x)