Condition Zero
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,056.50
1,664 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $913.87 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.80%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert | 12.5% | $2,708 4,265 HUNT_COIN | 37.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ Karambitknife · covert | 12.5% | $2,110 3,324 HUNT_COIN | 28.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert | 12.5% | $1,534 2,417 HUNT_COIN | 21.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| ★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert | 12.5% | $417 656 HUNT_COIN | 5.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.67× |
| ★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal | 12.5% | $154 242 HUNT_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knifeknife · covert | 12.5% | $139 219 HUNT_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert | 12.5% | $134 211 HUNT_COIN | 1.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ Navaja Knifeknife · covert | 12.5% | $115 181 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,057 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 87.5%Immortal 12.5%best hit $2,708 (2.56x)