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Clutch Kid

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$26.90
42.37 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.49%
EV $23.27 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.51%
209 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
16 openings · below min
7 days
95.51%±38.22147 openings
30 days
79.51%±32.05209 openings
since tracking started
79.51%±32.05209 openings
-0.5%82.5%165.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1649.02%±115.8—odds
7d14795.51%±38.2+0.5σodds
30d20979.51%±32.1−0.4σodds
All20979.51%±32.1−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 209 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$972 1,531 HUNT_COIN4.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 400$540 850 HUNT_COIN5.8%10.5—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$368 580 HUNT_COIN7.9%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 133$273 430 HUNT_COIN8.8%31.61.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$221 348 HUNT_COIN9.5%32.11.44×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 83$190 300 HUNT_COIN9.8%32.51.20×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 45$109 171 HUNT_COIN10.3%54.61.09×
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 40$72.92 115 HUNT_COIN7.8%35.20.57×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 36$65.97 104 HUNT_COIN7.8%15.70.17×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$54.17 85.32 HUNT_COIN7.0%56.30.80×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 31$43.05 67.81 HUNT_COIN6.0%36.80.44×
M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 29$37.50 59.07 HUNT_COIN5.6%67.30.82×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 25$32.88 51.78 HUNT_COIN5.7%78.40.84×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff25.0%$1.63 2.56 HUNT_COIN1.7%5452.31.03×
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted25.0%$1.30 2.04 HUNT_COIN1.4%5352.31.01×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted25.0%$0.62 0.98 HUNT_COIN0.7%6252.31.19×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$540850 HUNT_COIN20.07x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$1.302.04 HUNT_COIN0.05x
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$1.302.04 HUNT_COIN0.05x
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$32.8851.78 HUNT_COIN1.22x
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$1.302.04 HUNT_COIN0.05x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffHulk$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN0.06x
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$109171 HUNT_COIN4.04x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN0.06x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$26.9042.37 HUNT_COIN$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN0.06x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$26.9086.49%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 7.4%covert 11.4%pink 2.8%industrial 3.5%#8847ff 25.0%restricted 50.0%best hit $540 (20.07x)