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A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.24
6.68 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.38%
EV $3.66 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.01%
773 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 773 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 12.5% | $8.06 12.7 HUNT_COIN | 27.5% | 95 | 96.6 | 0.98× |
| SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 12.5% | $6.60 10.4 HUNT_COIN | 22.5% | 94 | 96.6 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon | 12.5% | $5.84 9.2 HUNT_COIN | 19.9% | 111 | 96.6 | 1.15× |
| MAG-7 | Justice (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $4.41 6.94 HUNT_COIN | 15.0% | 88 | 96.6 | 0.91× |
| P90 | Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 12.5% | $2.22 3.49 HUNT_COIN | 7.6% | 101 | 96.6 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | MUTiRiS (Holo)sticker | 12.5% | $1.10 1.74 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 86 | 96.6 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | hardzao (Gold)sticker | 12.5% | $0.73 1.15 HUNT_COIN | 2.5% | 111 | 96.6 | 1.15× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Warhawk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 12.5% | $0.34 0.54 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 87 | 96.6 | 0.90× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$4.246.68 HUNT_COIN$8.0612.7 HUNT_COIN1.90x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonIvantp10$4.246.68 HUNT_COIN$5.849.2 HUNT_COIN1.38x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedSr.Calavera$4.246.68 HUNT_COIN$8.0612.7 HUNT_COIN1.90x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$4.246.68 HUNT_COIN$8.0612.7 HUNT_COIN1.90x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$4.246.68 HUNT_COIN$5.849.2 HUNT_COIN1.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.24 | 86.38% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 12.5%consumer 12.5%uncommon 12.5%classified 12.5%Classified 12.5%other 25.0%mil spec 12.5%best hit —