AWP Me Daddy

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.37

80.91 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.49%

EV $44.43 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.52%

137 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

88.00%±30.05127 openings

30 days

88.52%±28.93137 openings

since tracking started

88.52%±28.93137 openings

17.5%115.8%214.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	115.83%±97.7	—	odds
7d	127	88.00%±30.0	+0.1σ	odds
30d	137	88.52%±28.9	+0.1σ	odds
All	137	88.52%±28.9	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,597 2,516 HUNT_COIN	1.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$964 1,518 HUNT_COIN	3.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$856 1,347 HUNT_COIN	3.9%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 333	$543 855 HUNT_COIN	3.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 125	$361 569 HUNT_COIN	6.5%	1	1.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$278 437 HUNT_COIN	6.2%	1	1.4	0.73×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$188 295 HUNT_COIN	6.3%	4	2.1	1.95×
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$167 262 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	2	2.7	0.73×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$128 202 HUNT_COIN	7.2%	4	3.4	1.17×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$95.47 150 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	7	6.9	1.02×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 15	$77.64 122 HUNT_COIN	11.4%	10	8.9	1.12×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$60.76 95.7 HUNT_COIN	10.3%	11	10.3	1.07×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	12.5%	$55.61 87.59 HUNT_COIN	15.6%	12	17.1	0.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.0%	$7.56 11.91 HUNT_COIN	3.4%	30	27.4	1.09×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	20.0%	$3.32 5.23 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	26	27.4	0.95×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	20.0%	$1.61 2.54 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	28	27.4	1.02×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertSparven$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$8561,347 HUNT_COIN16.65x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$7.5611.91 HUNT_COIN0.15x22h

AWP | Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$188295 HUNT_COIN3.65x22h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$1.612.54 HUNT_COIN0.03x22h

AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffPeitschenMeister$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$3.325.23 HUNT_COIN0.06x22h

StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$7.5611.91 HUNT_COIN0.15x22h

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$77.64122 HUNT_COIN1.51x22h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$55.6187.59 HUNT_COIN1.08x22h

AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertPeitschenMeister$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$95.47150 HUNT_COIN1.86x22h

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$51.3780.91 HUNT_COIN$60.7695.7 HUNT_COIN1.18x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$51.37	86.49%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 32.9%red 0.3%Classified 0.8%classified 26.0%#8847ff 20.0%Industrial Grade 20.0%best hit $856 (16.65x)