Bait God
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.81
1.28 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.42%
EV $0.70 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.85%
774 openings, odds method
Variance
138.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 774 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 748 | $262 413 HUNT_COIN | 49.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 10 | $1.61 2.54 HUNT_COIN | 22.6% | 72 | 76.3 | 0.94× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 12.5% | $0.39 0.62 HUNT_COIN | 7.0% | 83 | 96.8 | 0.86× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 12.5% | $0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN | 5.9% | 110 | 96.8 | 1.14× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 12.5% | $0.27 0.43 HUNT_COIN | 4.9% | 110 | 96.8 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 12.5% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 2.9% | 86 | 96.8 | 0.89× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 17.5% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 123 | 135.4 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 22.5% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN | 2.6% | 189 | 174.2 | 1.09× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$262413 HUNT_COIN322.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN0.34x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weaponcheese$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.48x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · CommonJey1D$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.330.52 HUNT_COIN0.41x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN0.34x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weaponLajhaTor | Bloodycase.$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.48x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN$0.330.52 HUNT_COIN0.41x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.81 | 86.42% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 10.0%other 12.5%Common 30.0%Consumer Grade 12.5%industrial 35.0%best hit $262 (322.7x)