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Extra Rifles

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$109.58
173 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $94.78 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
142.83%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
16 openings · below min
30 days
20 openings · below min
since tracking started
20 openings · below min
40.0%151.0%262.0%

Small sample. 20 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d16151.04%±110.5—odds
30d20142.83%±98.9—odds
All20142.83%±98.9—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$6,250 9,844 HUNT_COIN0.7%00.0—
M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband1 in 3,333$5,278 8,312 HUNT_COIN1.7%00.0—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$2,840 4,473 HUNT_COIN1.8%00.0—
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1,667 2,625 HUNT_COIN1.8%00.0—
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 400$1,326 2,089 HUNT_COIN3.5%00.1—
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 182$1,219 1,921 HUNT_COIN7.1%10.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$1,007 1,586 HUNT_COIN10.6%00.2—
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$610 960 HUNT_COIN12.9%10.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 33$480 755 HUNT_COIN15.2%20.6—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$346 545 HUNT_COIN10.9%00.6—
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$326 514 HUNT_COIN17.2%11.01.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 20$292 459 HUNT_COIN15.4%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec15.0%$3.77 5.94 HUNT_COIN0.6%13.00.33×
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet15.0%$2.22 3.5 HUNT_COIN0.4%13.00.33×
AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare25.0%$1.14 1.8 HUNT_COIN0.3%75.01.40×
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight25.0%$0.29 0.45 HUNT_COIN0.1%65.01.20×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$110173 HUNT_COIN$1,2191,921 HUNT_COIN11.13x
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMacieja$110173 HUNT_COIN$610960 HUNT_COIN5.56x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$110173 HUNT_COIN$0.290.45 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$110173 HUNT_COIN$3.775.94 HUNT_COIN0.03x
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$110173 HUNT_COIN$0.290.45 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$110173 HUNT_COIN$480755 HUNT_COIN4.38x
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violetMacieja$110173 HUNT_COIN$2.223.5 HUNT_COIN0.02x
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$110173 HUNT_COIN$0.290.45 HUNT_COIN0.00x
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified$110173 HUNT_COIN$326514 HUNT_COIN2.98x
AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$110173 HUNT_COIN$1.141.8 HUNT_COIN0.01x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$110173 HUNT_COIN$1,2191,921 HUNT_COIN11.13x
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMacieja$110173 HUNT_COIN$610960 HUNT_COIN5.56x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$11086.50%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.4%contraband 0.0%classified 7.6%#eb4b4b 3.0%legendary 5.0%milspec 15.0%violet 15.0%Rare 25.0%blueLight 25.0%best hit $1,219 (11.13x)