Headshot Machine
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.25
16.14 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.47%
EV $8.86 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.71%
440 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 440 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $106 167 HUNT_COIN | 6.0% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.82× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 133 | $101 158 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $97.09 153 HUNT_COIN | 11.0% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 80 | $90.08 142 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.64× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 57 | $86.92 137 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $83.33 131 HUNT_COIN | 18.8% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 36 | $81.25 128 HUNT_COIN | 25.2% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× |
| Sticker | Clicking Headssticker · Rare | 90.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 396 | 396.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLEZAS$10.2516.14 HUNT_COIN$81.25128 HUNT_COIN7.93x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert$10.2516.14 HUNT_COIN$90.08142 HUNT_COIN8.79x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.47%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.25 | 86.47% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%classified 0.8%rare 1.0%restricted 2.8%Rare 90.0%best hit —