Dragon Glass

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.85

20.24 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.46%

EV $11.11 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.47%

602 openings, odds method

Variance

26.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

58 openings · below min

7 days

82.67%±47.56451 openings

30 days

91.47%±41.17602 openings

since tracking started

91.47%±41.17602 openings

-0.5%111.5%223.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	58	90.22%±132.6	—	odds
7d	451	82.67%±47.6	−0.2σ	odds
30d	602	91.47%±41.2	+0.2σ	odds
All	602	91.47%±41.2	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 602 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,555 8,749 HUNT_COIN	5.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$306 481 HUNT_COIN	30.3%	11	6.6	1.66×
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$102 160 HUNT_COIN	11.0%	5	7.2	0.69×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 77	$96.98 153 HUNT_COIN	11.3%	8	7.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 72	$87.30 137 HUNT_COIN	10.9%	4	8.4	0.48×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 20	$20.67 32.56 HUNT_COIN	9.3%	31	30.1	1.03×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$14.15 22.29 HUNT_COIN	6.4%	29	30.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$8.03 12.64 HUNT_COIN	7.2%	59	60.2	0.98×
Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic	10.0%	$7.58 11.94 HUNT_COIN	6.8%	57	60.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	15.0%	$0.76 1.19 HUNT_COIN	1.0%	98	90.3	1.09×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.17 0.27 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	105	90.3	1.16×
Sticker \| Dragonsticker · Rare	35.0%	$0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	195	210.7	0.93×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$8.0312.64 HUNT_COIN0.62x2h

Sticker | Dragonsticker · Rare$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$0.761.19 HUNT_COIN0.06x2h

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$14.1522.29 HUNT_COIN1.10x2h

Sticker | Dragonsticker · RareDiabloPhD$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6Sr.Calavera$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$20.6732.56 HUNT_COIN1.61x2h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$8.0312.64 HUNT_COIN0.62x5h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$0.761.19 HUNT_COIN0.06x5h

Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exoticHobbi3ten$12.8520.24 HUNT_COIN$7.5811.94 HUNT_COIN0.59x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$12.85	86.46%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 17.5%restricted 1.2%Ancient 1.3%#d32ce6 5.0%exotic 10.0%violet 15.0%mil spec 15.0%Rare 35.0%best hit —