High DPI Low QI

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.88

12.41 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.45%

EV $6.81 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.76%

262 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

81.94%±26.68138 openings

30 days

81.76%±19.36262 openings

since tracking started

81.76%±19.36262 openings

42.0%104.3%166.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	104.28%±61.5	—	odds
7d	138	81.94%±26.7	−0.3σ	odds
30d	262	81.76%±19.4	−0.5σ	odds
All	262	81.76%±19.4	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 262 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$55.49 87.4 HUNT_COIN	8.1%	2	2.6	0.76×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$51.11 80.5 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	4	2.6	1.53×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 91	$45.14 71.1 HUNT_COIN	7.3%	2	2.9	0.69×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$44.44 70 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	1	3.0	0.33×
USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 67	$41.61 65.53 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	1	3.9	0.25×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 57	$34.65 54.58 HUNT_COIN	8.9%	6	4.6	1.31×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$29.17 45.95 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	8	5.2	1.53×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$24.03 37.85 HUNT_COIN	7.9%	7	5.9	1.19×
Sticker \| fer (Foil)sticker	1 in 40	$20.29 31.95 HUNT_COIN	7.4%	14	6.6	2.14×
Sticker \| fer (Foil)sticker	1 in 36	$15.77 24.83 HUNT_COIN	6.4%	14	7.2	1.94×
Sticker \| Astralissticker	1 in 29	$11.94 18.81 HUNT_COIN	6.1%	4	9.2	0.44×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$8.67 13.66 HUNT_COIN	5.7%	13	11.8	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.11 1.75 HUNT_COIN	2.4%	39	39.3	0.99×
M249 \| Magma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.88 1.39 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	56	52.4	1.07×
P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.88 1.39 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	53	52.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	20.0%	$0.57 0.9 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	52	52.4	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN0.07x2h

M249 | Magma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.881.39 HUNT_COIN0.11x2h

P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.881.39 HUNT_COIN0.11x2h

M249 | Magma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.881.39 HUNT_COIN0.11x2h

M249 | Magma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specIvantp10$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.881.39 HUNT_COIN0.11x2h

StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RareSr.Calavera$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN0.07x2h

P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.881.39 HUNT_COIN0.11x16h

StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN0.07x16h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$24.0337.85 HUNT_COIN3.05x16h

StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RareVladutBossul$7.8812.41 HUNT_COIN$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN0.07x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.88	86.45%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 37.0%classified 4.3%Rare 21.5%covert 4.0%other 8.8%mil spec 24.5%best hit —