Howling Down
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.89
36.05 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.48%
EV $19.79 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
118.18%
1,113 openings, odds method
Variance
107.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,113 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $7,153 11,265 HUNT_COIN | 36.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× |
| Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband | 1 in 250 | $1,040 1,638 HUNT_COIN | 21.0% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 1 in 44 | $156 245 HUNT_COIN | 17.7% | 36 | 25.0 | 1.44× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 44 | $146 230 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 21 | 25.0 | 0.84× |
| Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare | 30.0% | $4.01 6.32 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 350 | 333.9 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Baby Howlsticker · high | 30.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 317 | 333.9 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil)sticker · exotic | 35.0% | $0.71 1.12 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 382 | 389.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contrabandApumatic$22.8936.05 HUNT_COIN$7,15311,265 HUNT_COIN312.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedHulk$22.8936.05 HUNT_COIN$146230 HUNT_COIN6.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.89 | 86.48% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.5%Ancient 2.3%classified 2.3%Rare 30.0%high 30.0%exotic 35.0%best hit $7,153 (312.5x)