Inferno
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$739.64
1,165 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $639.79 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
169.67%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 100 | $6,415 10,103 HUNT_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 80 | $5,555 8,750 HUNT_COIN | 10.9% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 67 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN | 11.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | mousesports (Holo)sticker | 1 in 57 | $4,305 6,781 HUNT_COIN | 11.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $3,305 5,206 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT_COIN | 21.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 14 | $1,972 3,106 HUNT_COIN | 21.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 80.0% | $0.58 0.92 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$7401,165 HUNT_COIN$5,5558,750 HUNT_COIN7.51x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$7401,165 HUNT_COIN$5,5558,750 HUNT_COIN7.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$7401,165 HUNT_COIN$5,5558,750 HUNT_COIN7.51x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$7401,165 HUNT_COIN$5,5558,750 HUNT_COIN7.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $740 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 1.0%legendary 1.3%contraband 1.5%other 1.8%covert 9.5%extraordinary 5.0%Restricted 80.0%best hit $5,555 (7.51x)