Jungle

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$147.62

233 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $127.69 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.65%

41 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

41 openings · below min

since tracking started

41 openings · below min

-0.5%105.5%211.5%

Small sample. 41 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	23.12%±188.0	—	odds
30d	41	73.65%±71.9	—	odds
All	41	73.65%±71.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$10.4K 16,406 HUNT_COIN	4.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$2,639 4,156 HUNT_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 667	$2,361 3,719 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$1,292 2,034 HUNT_COIN	7.1%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,178 1,855 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 20	$667 1,050 HUNT_COIN	26.1%	3	2.1	1.46×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$458 722 HUNT_COIN	28.7%	3	3.3	0.91×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial	12.5%	$111 175 HUNT_COIN	10.9%	7	5.1	1.37×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial	12.5%	$82.97 131 HUNT_COIN	8.1%	3	5.1	0.59×
XM1014 \| Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	20.0%	$3.40 5.36 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	11	8.2	1.34×
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	20.0%	$1.94 3.06 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	7	8.2	0.85×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	20.0%	$0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	7	8.2	0.85×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covertgropin$148233 HUNT_COIN$6671,050 HUNT_COIN4.52x7d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$148233 HUNT_COIN$6671,050 HUNT_COIN4.52x7d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · CovertHobbi3ten$148233 HUNT_COIN$6671,050 HUNT_COIN4.52x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$148233 HUNT_COIN$1.943.06 HUNT_COIN0.01x4d

XM1014 | Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$148233 HUNT_COIN$3.405.36 HUNT_COIN0.02x4d

Five-SeveN | Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$148233 HUNT_COIN$1.943.06 HUNT_COIN0.01x4d

XM1014 | Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$148233 HUNT_COIN$3.405.36 HUNT_COIN0.02x4d

AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial$148233 HUNT_COIN$111175 HUNT_COIN0.75x4d

M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrialKarl Ess$148233 HUNT_COIN$82.97131 HUNT_COIN0.56x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$148	86.50%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 8.8%legendary 0.1%classified 1.0%Covert 5.0%industrial 25.0%Consumer Grade 40.0%gray 20.0%best hit $667 (4.52x)