Imminent Danger

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.00

36.23 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.49%

EV $19.90 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.59%

224 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

67.57%±24.12176 openings

30 days

72.59%±21.38224 openings

since tracking started

72.59%±21.38224 openings

6.0%67.0%128.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	67.12%±60.5	—	odds
7d	176	67.57%±24.1	−1.5σ	odds
30d	224	72.59%±21.4	−1.3σ	odds
All	224	72.59%±21.4	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$722 1,137 HUNT_COIN	1.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$445 701 HUNT_COIN	3.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$338 533 HUNT_COIN	3.4%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 333	$208 328 HUNT_COIN	3.1%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$142 224 HUNT_COIN	5.7%	2	1.8	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$111 175 HUNT_COIN	5.6%	1	2.2	0.45×
Sticker \| Flammable (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 67	$82.72 130 HUNT_COIN	6.2%	5	3.4	1.49×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$71.18 112 HUNT_COIN	7.2%	7	4.5	1.56×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$53.87 84.85 HUNT_COIN	6.8%	4	5.6	0.71×
P250 \| Splash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$43.46 68.45 HUNT_COIN	10.9%	10	11.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 15	$35.49 55.9 HUNT_COIN	11.6%	8	14.6	0.55×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$29.03 45.73 HUNT_COIN	10.9%	12	16.8	0.71×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.5%	$25.97 40.91 HUNT_COIN	16.3%	31	28.0	1.11×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$3.61 5.69 HUNT_COIN	3.6%	53	44.8	1.18×
Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial	20.0%	$2.43 3.82 HUNT_COIN	2.4%	45	44.8	1.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	20.0%	$0.97 1.53 HUNT_COIN	1.0%	46	44.8	1.03×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$71.18112 HUNT_COIN3.09x1h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$0.971.53 HUNT_COIN0.04x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$25.9740.91 HUNT_COIN1.13x1h

Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$2.433.82 HUNT_COIN0.11x1h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertHulk$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$35.4955.9 HUNT_COIN1.54x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$25.9740.91 HUNT_COIN1.13x1h

Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$2.433.82 HUNT_COIN0.11x1h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$3.615.69 HUNT_COIN0.16x1h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$23.0036.23 HUNT_COIN$35.4955.9 HUNT_COIN1.54x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$23.00	86.49%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.2%Restricted 0.3%restricted 26.0%exotic 1.5%mil spec 2.5%classified 12.5%industrial 20.0%milspec 20.0%best hit —