5% Rifle
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.49
18.1 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.46%
EV $9.94 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.64%
1,976 openings, odds method
Variance
16.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,976 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 500 | $546 860 HUNT_COIN | 11.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.51× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $396 623 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $242 381 HUNT_COIN | 24.3% | 26 | 19.8 | 1.32× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $155 245 HUNT_COIN | 23.5% | 23 | 29.6 | 0.78× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $111 175 HUNT_COIN | 22.3% | 44 | 39.5 | 1.11× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 30.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT_COIN | 2.9% | 573 | 592.8 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.92 1.45 HUNT_COIN | 2.8% | 596 | 592.8 | 1.01× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 35.0% | $0.36 0.56 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 708 | 691.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGremlin$11.4918.1 HUNT_COIN$546860 HUNT_COIN47.50x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specPOSK$11.4918.1 HUNT_COIN$0.921.45 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.49 | 86.46% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 0.2%covert 2.8%classified 2.0%other 30.0%mil spec 30.0%Mythical 35.0%best hit $546 (47.50x)