5% Dreaming baby

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.70

7.4 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.75%

EV $4.17 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.56%

502 openings, odds method

Variance

44.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 80

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

21 openings · below min

7 days

244 openings · below min

30 days

94.56%±58.63502 openings

since tracking started

94.56%±58.63502 openings

-0.5%160.5%321.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	21	33.97%±286.6	—	odds
7d	244	145.90%±84.1	—	odds
30d	502	94.56%±58.6	+0.2σ	odds
All	502	94.56%±58.6	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 502 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 2,000	$849 1,338 HUNT_COIN	10.2%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$708 1,116 HUNT_COIN	8.5%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$326 514 HUNT_COIN	7.8%	2	0.5	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$222 350 HUNT_COIN	8.0%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 667	$205 324 HUNT_COIN	7.4%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$95.47 150 HUNT_COIN	17.2%	3	3.8	0.80×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$72.92 115 HUNT_COIN	13.1%	6	3.8	1.59×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$48.33 76.12 HUNT_COIN	11.6%	4	5.0	0.80×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$33.26 52.39 HUNT_COIN	16.0%	13	10.0	1.29×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	95.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	473	476.9	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified$4.707.4 HUNT_COIN$326514 HUNT_COIN69.45x4d

AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified$4.707.4 HUNT_COIN$326514 HUNT_COIN69.45x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeDiabloPhD$4.707.4 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x15h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.707.4 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x15h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.707.4 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$4.70	88.75%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.1%covert 4.9%classified 0.1%Consumer Grade 95.0%best hit $326 (69.45x)