SongaMonga

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.96

42.46 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.49%

EV $23.32 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.81%

299 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

89.32%±22.00237 openings

30 days

97.81%±19.59299 openings

since tracking started

97.81%±19.59299 openings

-0.5%107.0%214.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	106.78%±107.1	—	odds
7d	237	89.32%±22.0	+0.3σ	odds
30d	299	97.81%±19.6	+1.1σ	odds
All	299	97.81%±19.6	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 299 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$232 366 HUNT_COIN	10.0%	3	3.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$179 282 HUNT_COIN	9.6%	3	3.7	0.80×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$155 245 HUNT_COIN	10.0%	6	4.5	1.34×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$133 210 HUNT_COIN	10.0%	4	5.2	0.76×
Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Foil)sticker	1 in 40	$111 175 HUNT_COIN	11.9%	7	7.5	0.94×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$92.64 146 HUNT_COIN	19.9%	20	15.0	1.34×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$71.61 113 HUNT_COIN	21.5%	29	20.9	1.39×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$3.46 5.45 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	26	29.9	0.87×
Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Chicken (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	15.0%	$2.64 4.16 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	46	44.9	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	15.0%	$2.36 3.72 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	48	44.9	1.07×
Sticker \| Kimberlysticker · Rare	20.0%	$1.86 2.93 HUNT_COIN	1.6%	53	59.8	0.89×
Sticker \| Max (Holo)sticker · remarkable	20.0%	$1.00 1.58 HUNT_COIN	0.9%	54	59.8	0.90×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Counter Logic Gaming (Foil)stickerLEZAS$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$111175 HUNT_COIN4.12x10h

Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$2.363.72 HUNT_COIN0.09x10h

Sticker | Kimberlysticker · Rare$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$1.862.93 HUNT_COIN0.07x10h

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$92.64146 HUNT_COIN3.44x10h

Sticker | Poorly Drawn Chicken (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.10x10h

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$71.61113 HUNT_COIN2.66x10h

Sticker | Max (Holo)sticker · remarkable$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$1.001.58 HUNT_COIN0.04x13h

Sticker | Poorly Drawn Chicken (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.10x13h

Sticker | Max (Holo)sticker · remarkablePeitschenMeister$26.9642.46 HUNT_COIN$1.001.58 HUNT_COIN0.04x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$26.96	86.49%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 8.0%pink 1.3%classified 1.5%mil spec 1.8%other 2.5%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 10.0%#8847ff 15.0%#d32ee6 15.0%Rare 20.0%remarkable 20.0%best hit —