Sniper Nest
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$192.41
303 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $166.43 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.43%
56 openings, odds method
Variance
16.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 56 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $9,540 15,025 HUNT_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $3,305 5,206 HUNT_COIN | 19.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT_COIN | 25.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,960 3,087 HUNT_COIN | 23.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $18.06 28.45 HUNT_COIN | 3.3% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.83× |
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $13.18 20.76 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.83× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 35.0% | $6.24 9.83 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 26 | 19.6 | 1.33× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$192303 HUNT_COIN$6.249.83 HUNT_COIN0.03x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$192303 HUNT_COIN$6.249.83 HUNT_COIN0.03x
SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New)weapon · consumerKarl Ess$192303 HUNT_COIN$18.0628.45 HUNT_COIN0.09x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$192303 HUNT_COIN$6.249.83 HUNT_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $192 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%consumer 30.0%classified 30.0%Restricted 35.0%best hit $3,305 (17.18x)