Scout Gang

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.76

2.77 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.37%

EV $1.52 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.08%

1,224 openings, odds method

Variance

11.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

55 openings · below min

7 days

86.75%±20.411,011 openings

30 days

88.08%±18.551,224 openings

since tracking started

88.08%±18.551,224 openings

-0.5%71.8%144.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	55	56.06%±87.5	—	odds
7d	1,011	86.75%±20.4	+0.0σ	odds
30d	1,224	88.08%±18.5	+0.2σ	odds
All	1,224	88.08%±18.5	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,224 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$211 332 HUNT_COIN	6.9%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 667	$47.98 75.57 HUNT_COIN	4.7%	3	1.8	1.63×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 500	$30.34 47.79 HUNT_COIN	4.0%	1	2.4	0.41×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 167	$18.95 29.85 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	2	7.3	0.27×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$15.83 24.94 HUNT_COIN	10.4%	11	12.2	0.90×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 50	$9.03 14.23 HUNT_COIN	11.9%	28	24.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 40	$5.25 8.27 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	38	30.6	1.24×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$3.75 5.91 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	44	42.8	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$2.91 4.59 HUNT_COIN	9.6%	67	61.2	1.09×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$2.48 3.91 HUNT_COIN	12.3%	91	91.8	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$1.86 2.93 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	76	91.8	0.83×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	10.0%	$0.27 0.43 HUNT_COIN	1.8%	134	122.4	1.09×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.15 0.24 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	182	183.6	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Well-Worn)weapon · 2	15.0%	$0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN	1.1%	214	183.6	1.17×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	15.0%	$0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN	0.9%	175	183.6	0.95×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN	0.8%	157	183.6	0.86×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertuday11$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$211332 HUNT_COIN120.0x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Well-Worn)weapon · 2$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.06x16m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.09x16m

SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Well-Worn)weapon · 2$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.06x16m

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffVladutBossul$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.05x16m

SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$15.8324.94 HUNT_COIN9.00x16m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.09x16m

SSG 08 | Slashed (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$1.862.93 HUNT_COIN1.06x16m

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffVladutBossul$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.05x16m

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.05x16m

SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.762.77 HUNT_COIN$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN0.16x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.37%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.76	86.37%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 15.0%covert 0.1%red 0.1%Classified 0.2%classified 0.6%mil spec 21.0%#d32ee6 2.0%#8847ff 2.5%blue 3.5%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%#4b69ff 30.0%milspec 15.0%best hit $211 (120.0x)