10% falling in love
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.24
8.25 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.61%
EV $4.64 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.69%
281 openings, odds method
Variance
15.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 281 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.24 | 88.61% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.1%covert 5.7%mil spec 0.6%#eb4b4b 0.1%rare 0.6%red 1.5%restricted 1.5%other 90.0%best hit —