1% Knife
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.33
2.1 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.28%
EV $1.15 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.77%
991 openings, odds method
Variance
91.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 286
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 991 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 991 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 2,000 | $313 492 HUNT_COIN | 13.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 2,000 | $207 326 HUNT_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $170 267 HUNT_COIN | 7.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 2,000 | $165 260 HUNT_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 667 | $140 221 HUNT_COIN | 18.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 400 | $97.23 153 HUNT_COIN | 21.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 19.1% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 99.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 4.4% | 982 | 981.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$1.332.1 HUNT_COIN$313492 HUNT_COIN234.4x
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covertMaltael$1.332.1 HUNT_COIN$170267 HUNT_COIN127.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.33 | 86.28% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.1%gold 0.1%covert 0.6%Covert 0.1%knifes 0.3%gray 99.0%best hit $313 (234.4x)