20% Tactics

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.84

70.63 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.49%

EV $38.79 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.52%

577 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

92.32%±15.77469 openings

30 days

86.52%±14.22577 openings

since tracking started

86.52%±14.22577 openings

-0.5%76.0%152.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	43.78%±108.0	—	odds
7d	469	92.32%±15.8	+0.7σ	odds
30d	577	86.52%±14.2	+0.0σ	odds
All	577	86.52%±14.2	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 577 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$380 599 HUNT_COIN	9.8%	5	5.8	0.87×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$306 481 HUNT_COIN	9.8%	4	7.2	0.55×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$267 420 HUNT_COIN	10.3%	5	8.7	0.58×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$233 367 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	12	10.1	1.19×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$184 290 HUNT_COIN	11.9%	17	14.4	1.18×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 20	$156 245 HUNT_COIN	20.1%	36	28.9	1.25×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 14	$114 179 HUNT_COIN	20.6%	43	40.4	1.06×
Souvenir P90 \| Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon	10.0%	$5.40 8.51 HUNT_COIN	1.4%	52	57.7	0.90×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	15.0%	$4.48 7.05 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	72	86.5	0.83×
P90 \| Scorched (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	15.0%	$4.01 6.32 HUNT_COIN	1.6%	85	86.5	0.98×
Souvenir P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Rare	20.0%	$3.00 4.73 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	120	115.4	1.04×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	20.0%	$1.54 2.43 HUNT_COIN	0.8%	126	115.4	1.09×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir P90 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$5.408.51 HUNT_COIN0.12x1h

Souvenir P90 | Glacier Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Rare$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$3.004.73 HUNT_COIN0.07x1h

Souvenir P90 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$5.408.51 HUNT_COIN0.12x1h

Souvenir P90 | Glacier Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Rare$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$3.004.73 HUNT_COIN0.07x1h

Souvenir P90 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponHulk$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$5.408.51 HUNT_COIN0.12x1h

P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$4.487.05 HUNT_COIN0.10x7h

P90 | Scorched (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$4.016.32 HUNT_COIN0.09x7h

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$156245 HUNT_COIN3.47x7h

P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedLeva_alt2$44.8470.63 HUNT_COIN$4.487.05 HUNT_COIN0.10x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$44.84	86.49%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 6.0%classified 16.3%covert 4.0%restricted 1.8%red 7.0%other 10.0%consumer 15.0%Rare 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit —