AltF4
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$61.01
96.09 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $52.77 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.70%
94 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 94 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $678 1,067 HUNT_COIN | 51.4% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $362 571 HUNT_COIN | 27.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $255 402 HUNT_COIN | 19.4% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | Seeing Redsticker · Rare | 44.0% | $1.11 1.75 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 39 | 41.4 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6 | 44.0% | $1.03 1.63 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 47 | 41.4 | 1.14× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertKarl Ess$61.0196.09 HUNT_COIN$6781,067 HUNT_COIN11.11x
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertPeitschenMeister$61.0196.09 HUNT_COIN$6781,067 HUNT_COIN11.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6PeitschenMeister$61.0196.09 HUNT_COIN$1.031.63 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $61.01 | 86.50% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%classified 4.0%Rare 44.0%#d32ce6 44.0%best hit $678 (11.11x)