Callouts

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.09

1.72 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.24%

EV $0.94 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.94%

1,506 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

50 openings · below min

7 days

84.72%±7.761,290 openings

30 days

87.94%±7.181,506 openings

since tracking started

87.94%±7.181,506 openings

70.0%110.0%150.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	50	110.07%±39.4	—	odds
7d	1,290	84.72%±7.76	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,506	87.94%±7.18	+0.5σ	odds
All	1,506	87.94%±7.18	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,506 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$9.52 15 HUNT_COIN	10.1%	17	15.1	1.13×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$7.93 12.49 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	20	18.8	1.06×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 67	$3.68 5.8 HUNT_COIN	5.9%	26	22.6	1.15×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$3.54 5.58 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	31	30.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$2.99 4.71 HUNT_COIN	6.4%	26	30.1	0.86×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$2.48 3.91 HUNT_COIN	6.6%	30	37.6	0.80×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$2.22 3.49 HUNT_COIN	7.1%	58	45.2	1.28×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$2.06 3.25 HUNT_COIN	8.8%	66	60.2	1.10×
P250 \| Inferno (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.83 2.89 HUNT_COIN	8.3%	61	64.0	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.61 2.54 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	75	75.3	1.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 17	$1.37 2.16 HUNT_COIN	8.7%	90	90.4	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$1.23 1.94 HUNT_COIN	9.8%	98	113.0	0.87×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	15.0%	$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	237	225.9	1.05×
P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	226	225.9	1.00×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common	15.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	196	225.9	0.87×
P90 \| Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	15.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	249	225.9	1.10×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$1.612.54 HUNT_COIN1.48x2h

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$9.5215 HUNT_COIN8.72x2h

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

P90 | Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9Alexander$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.04x2h

P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x2h

P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.04x2h

P250 | Inferno (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.091.72 HUNT_COIN$1.832.89 HUNT_COIN1.68x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.24%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.09	86.24%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%restricted 10.5%#4b69ff 16.5%mil spec 9.5%Rare 2.0%classified 5.5%#8847ff 4.0%Mil Spec 6.0%#5e98d9 15.0%Common 15.0%consumer 15.0%best hit —