CetaBuck
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$93.27
147 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $80.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.65%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 40 | $285 448 HUNT_COIN | 8.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $250 394 HUNT_COIN | 15.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $197 310 HUNT_COIN | 18.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 13 | $153 241 HUNT_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $146 229 HUNT_COIN | 13.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $123 194 HUNT_COIN | 15.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade | 55.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.25× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$93.27147 HUNT_COIN$250394 HUNT_COIN2.68x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $93.27 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.5%covert knife 12.5%covert 30.0%High Grade 55.0%best hit —