Fake Flash

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.34

0.54 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

85.47%

EV $0.29 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.93%

3,171 openings, odds method

Variance

9.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.79%±55.65114 openings

7 days

88.53%±11.522,660 openings

30 days

85.93%±10.553,171 openings

since tracking started

85.93%±10.553,171 openings

14.5%70.8%127.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	114	70.79%±55.6	−0.5σ	odds
7d	2,660	88.53%±11.5	+0.5σ	odds
30d	3,171	85.93%±10.6	+0.1σ	odds
All	3,171	85.93%±10.6	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,171 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$13.18 20.76 HUNT_COIN	22.5%	18	15.9	1.14×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 67	$3.32 5.23 HUNT_COIN	17.0%	44	47.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$1.28 2.01 HUNT_COIN	13.1%	88	95.1	0.93×
Sticker \| Flashbangsticker · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN	13.9%	159	158.6	1.00×
Sticker \| Flashblack (Holo)sticker · Mythical	10.0%	$0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN	23.6%	310	317.1	0.98×
Sticker \| Call Your Flashessticker · milspec	15.0%	$0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN	5.8%	501	475.6	1.05×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	20.0%	$0.03 0.05 HUNT_COIN	2.2%	605	634.2	0.95×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	1,446	1427.0	1.01×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x3h

Sticker | Call Your Flashessticker · milspec$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.33x3h

Sticker | Flashblack (Holo)sticker · MythicalMaltael$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.691.09 HUNT_COIN2.02x3h

Sticker | Call Your Flashessticker · milspec$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.33x3h

P90 | Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN0.09x3h

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x3h

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · CommonMaltael$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x3h

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.34	85.47%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 0.5%violet 1.5%milspec 18.0%#4b69ff 5.0%Mythical 10.0%#b0c3d9 20.0%Common 45.0%best hit —